Following US President Donald Trump’s recent imposition of a 14 percent tariff on Nigerian exports to his nation, stakeholders and exporters have voiced serious concerns about the country’s possible loss of $6 billion in yearly export revenue.
They caution that Nigeria’s preferential trade benefits under the African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA), a program started in 2000 to improve market access for African nations, may be terminated as a result of the new policy.
This occurs as the federal government acknowledges the recent development and reaffirms its determination to mitigate its effects and expedite its efforts to diversify the economy.
Crude oil has historically made up the majority of Nigeria’s exports to the United States, but the new tariff regime threatens to disrupt non-oil exports, many of which previously enjoyed duty-free access under the African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA), the government said in a statement released on Sunday by Dr. Jumoke Oduwole, Minister of Industry, Trade, and Investment.
It further stated that the competitiveness of Nigerian goods in the United States may be impacted by the new 10% tariff on important categories.
“For businesses in the non-oil sector, these measures present destabilising challenges to price competitiveness and market access, especially in emerging and value-added sectors vital to our diversification agenda.
“SMEs building their business models around AGOA exemptions will face the pressures of rising costs and uncertain buyer commitments,” it stated.
The statement claims that over 90% of Nigeria’s exports to the United States over the last two years have been mineral fuels and crude oil, with an average of $5–6 billion per year.
Nonetheless, the government stated that it views this as a driving force behind export diversification and enhanced adherence to global norms.
“We are approaching this moment with pragmatism and purpose—turning global trade challenges into opportunities to grow our non-oil export footprint and build a more resilient economy,” said Dr. Oduwole.
It added that non-oil exports such as fertilizers, urea, lead, and agricultural products make up less than 5% of total shipments.
With the new tariffs, Nigerian businesses in value-added and agro-processing sectors may face reduced competitiveness in the U.S. market.
However, according to information obtained by Daily Sun from the Nigerian-American Chamber of Commerce, Nigeria has exported an estimated $277 billion worth of goods to the United States under AGOA.
Meanwhile, Nigeria’s AGOA exports average roughly $10–12 billion per year in value. Hence, the vast majority of this value has come from crude oil shipments.
Daily Sun also learnt that petroleum products have overwhelmingly dominated Nigeria’s AGOA exports each year – oil alone accounts for practically all of Nigeria’s exports under the programme by value.
Stakeholders who spoke with Daily Sun said that the policy may cause job losses and a decline in export revenue as many exporters will face difficulties in exporting their goods to the US.
Speaking with Daily Sun, an expert and a lecturer at Maritime University, Charles Okerefe, said it is a very sad commentary on what President Donald Trump has done.
According to him, it has jolted the world business environment in a very profound way, saying with the 14 per cent tariff on exports from Nigeria to the US, there is definitely going to be a shrinkage in the nation’s export volumes
“And as a corollary, a drastic drop in our foreign exchange earnings from that trade segment. Besides, it will trigger job losses and unemployment because exporters to the US may seek other alternatives and if that is not forthcoming, it is the labour force that would be the first casualty. So in all, it is not a good omen for Nigerian commerce and business in general.
“If only Trump is given to dialogue, then that would have been a major way out. But he is self-conceited. And is it possible for the Nigerian government to retaliate with an increase of tariff on American exports to Nigeria? I’m afraid it is not.
So, for now, I guess it will be a wait and see approach for the time being,” he said.
Meanwhile, the Head of Research of the Sea Empowerment Research Centre (SEREC), Eugene Nweke said in specific terms, the recent 14 per cent duty imposed by the US government on Nigerian goods could significantly impact Nigeria’s export market, adding that with Nigeria exporting goods worth $10 billion annually to the US, the new tariff may hinder the country’s export growth.
“The US government justifies this move by citing Nigeria’s existing 27 per cent tariff on American goods, aiming to create fair trade and protect US industries. Let us consider the implications on the Nigerian Export Market, which includes but is not limited to the 14 per cent tariff, which could make Nigerian non-oil exports less competitive in the US market, potentially leading to decreased exports and revenue losses.
“Nigeria’s efforts to diversify its economy beyond crude oil exports may be hindered by the new tariff, making it harder to achieve economic growth and development. The Nigerian government may need to reconsider its tariff policies on US goods to avoid further retaliatory measures and maintain a favourable trade relationship.
“Then let’s narrow tariffs policy impact on the African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA). Such impacts include the new tariff policy threatening key trade preferences under AGOA, which has provided African nations with duty-free access to the US market. Without renegotiation, African exporters may struggle to maintain their market share in the US, potentially leading to economic losses and decreased competitiveness.
However, the Chief Executive Officer of the Centre for the Promotion of Private Enterprise (CPPE), Dr Muda Yusuf, said the vulnerability of the Nigerian economy to the shock of the current trade war unleashed by President Trump may be very limited, saying average, Nigeria’s external trade exposure to the United States is averagely about 10 per cent.
“In 2024, Nigeria’s total merchandise export was valued at $50.4 billion, and Nigeria’s export to the United States the same year was $5.7 billion, which was 11.3 per cent. Tariff effect on about 10 per cent of total exports is unlikely to cause a major upset in the Nigerian economy.
“Nigeria’s major exports to the US are crude oil, petroleum gas, and nitrogenous fertiliser. Major US exports to Nigeria are mainly vehicles, wheat, and fuels. Other major export destinations for Nigerian products are Spain, France, Netherlands, and Italy. Oil and gas products account for close to 90 per cent of Nigeria’s exports. This has been the position for about three decades,” he explained.
However, he said the Nigerian economy may be affected indirectly in some other ways, saying the Trump administration has practically brought closure to the AGOA trade window.
He went on to say that the trade war and the retaliatory tariffs that followed would cause inflationary pressures in the US, which could lead to higher prices for US imports into Nigeria.
The tariff war is probably going to cause some degree of disruption in global supply chains.
Crude oil prices may be impacted, and the outlook for global growth may be dampened.
Nigeria’s foreign reserves and income would be impacted by a drop in oil prices.
